Many U.S. regions are at elevated risk of electricity supply shortfalls in the event of extreme weather this winter, reflecting growing challenges for the power grid as substantial always-available generation is retired, the North American Electric Reliability Corp. (NERC) said in a new report.
In its Winter Reliability Assessment, released Nov. 14, 2024, NERC said all assessed areas should have adequate resources for normal peak winter load. But much of the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are at risk of energy shortfalls or natural gas pipeline capacity constraints if there is a prolonged cold snap.
Those risks stem partly from growing power demand and the loss of capacity from retired coal-fired and older gas-fired plants, according to the report.
Challenges tied to higher demand are compounded by “flawed public policies” that are shutting down always-available power generation, National Rural Electric Cooperative Association CEO Jim Matheson said.
“This growing threat to reliable electricity jeopardizes the health of local communities and undermines the American economy,” Matheson said. “This report clearly highlights the need to swiftly implement a pro-energy policy agenda with a focus on affordability and reliability for American families and businesses. Smart energy policies that keep the lights on are more important than ever.”
Ongoing industry efforts to bolster winter reliability have made the grid better prepared for the coming months, according to NERC.
But demand is growing from new data centers and increased electrification of home heating and transportation. Meeting that demand has become “more challenging and complex as coal-fired and older natural gas-fired generators retire and are replaced by variable and energy-limited resources,” NERC said.
Severe arctic storms have extended across much of North America in three of the past five winters. NERC recommended ways that grid operators, generation owners and government authorities can prevent energy emergencies and minimize potential power shutoffs. Those actions include preparing for high electricity demand and low wind conditions, winterizing generation units, and increasing operational coordination around generation fuels.
